The big hope of Ireland runs in that first race, the Supreme Novice Hurdle, in Cousin Vinny. Last year Binocular was a similar warm order to win this and was beaten into third, as much by the occasion than anything, Cousin Vinny could go the same way. Rumour has it that the horse did not eat up on Sunday and has not travelled well, but there will be rumours aplenty here this week. I will be laying Cousin Vinny at the prices, around 2-1. He is a very good horse, but having fallen last time, the rumours of his well being and the fact that a young amateur rider is aboard means that a lay is the best option, but he is the best horse on all known form in the race. Torphichen could be the value, but steps up in class markedly. I will stick with my lay of the favourite.
The Arkle Chase at 2.40 is another good race to get stuck into. I have already backed Imsingingtheblues at 9/1. He beat Calgari Bay at Doncaster, giving it seven pounds and then won a big handicap at Doncaster. Calgari Bay has improved since then, but I still think that Paul Nicholls’s charge is better value and has a great chance. Ruby Walsh partners Cooldine, which must be significant by I will stick with my Ante Post selection. One horse to Lay in the Place Market is Kalahari King. He is not in this class, in my book and won’t like the going and a lay at 4.4 looks good value to me.
The feature is th
e Champion Hurdle at 3.20 which is a real cavalry charge of 24 horses, headed in the market by Binocular. I really like Binocular, but not the price. I think he will win, but would want a better price. Having said that he is on the drift and may become an attractive proposition. The big three for me are Osana, Celestial Halo and Tony McCoy’s mount. McCoy is very keen on his chances, I for one would not argue with the greatest of them all. The form is there, but the doubt is last year’s Supreme Novices defeat but he will win this I believe.In the last race, the Mares Hurdle at 4.40 United is my bet, but the Irish challenge from the Willie Mullins trained Quevega is the main threat. United has looked impressive, but so has Ruby Walsh’s mount and it will be a tough battle, but United has the better creditials for me.
Not my biggest day of betting, but a great day where we should kick off in profit.
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Starting tomorrow I will post my best throughout the day as I seek to make £1000 over the next few days at Cheltenham.
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Carl,
ReplyDeleteGreat summary of the day's proceedings, in fact as clear yet thorough an appraisal as any one I've seen thus far. Good work.
I'll only be having the one bet today I think, and that should be on Binocular in the Champion Hurdle at 3.20.
As you've identified though, the value isn't quite there at present, and so I'd want to see some drift this morning, as at 7/4 I'm not keen.
Rumour is he may drift a little, and the weather may also cause some doubts if we get more rain, as I think most feel that Osana has more stamina, but we'll see.
Good luck with the challenge of winning a grand too, some target that!
Cheers,
Cliff
Cliff much appreciated. I may have under sold my betting bank for this challenge. But Lets see!
ReplyDeleteI think Binocular is rock solid!
Binocular for me too. Wouldnt Lay Vinny though, Ian.
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